@&#% Texas

Well, that sucks. I was mid-flight when the BruceBall-Texas game ended, hopeful (but doubtful) that the 2nd half would go the Vols’ way and I’d get word that we won. The plane landed, I turned my phone on, and I had a message waiting for me that basically said this:

The word I’ve been hearing is that we just didn’t bring it defensively, and the stats agree. Tennessee gave up 97 points on 73 possessions for a raw efficiency of 132.9. That’s abysmal. It sounds like intensity was way down and we just gave Texas too many looks. Perhaps WVU took it out of us the night before, or perhaps we were really just overmatched. No early-season tourney title this year, folks.

It sucks to lose, but I’m not terribly concerned. With all of these early road/neutral tests, there was no way we were going to fly into the SEC season without getting our hair mussed. You don’t play tough teams in tough venues in order to pile up wins. You play these games to get your boys some good experience against good teams, and to learn things about yourself and where you need to improve. Last year about this time, we looked silly against Butler and UNC. Later in the year, we lost 6 of 8 games in a really rough stretch. But I’d say by any measure, we were a very good team in March and just missed the Elite 8. Those tests and tough losses shaped and grew our team. We will be okay this year too.

BruceBall vs. West Virginia Preview

After a brief break, the Vols return to Legends Classic action tonight against the West Virginia Mountaineers at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. It’s bad enough that the poor fellas have to spend time in the “Garden” State, but they’re going to have an all-out brawl on their hands while they’re there. West Virginia brings back some very solid players from the 2007 NIT title team, and brings in a new coach that stresses questionable recruiting practices pressure man-to-man defense, Bob Huggins.

West Virginia will be a stiff test for the Vols, easily the toughest competition to date. The Mountaineers have played just two games against patsies Arkansas-Monticello and Prairie View A&M, but they were very efficient in dispatching them and are currently rated #1 overall and in defensive efficiency by Ken Pomeroy. They won the two opening round games by a combined score of 187-94– not bad. The Vols outscored the same two teams 190-119 and had some problems with Prairie View before putting them away.

The key for WVU to this point has been forcing difficult shots (opponents are 25% in eFG%) and turnovers (40.7 per 100 possessions, which leads the NCAA). Offensively, Huggins’s boys have shot very well, with an eFG% of more than 66%. WVU has been led by 6′6″ guard Alex Ruoff, who is averaging 19.5 points and has hit 8 of 13 3-point attempts through two games.

One very interesting stat for WVU through two games is their tempo: 83.6 possessions per game (kenpom.com). Last year, John Beilein’s Mountaineers averaged just 63.6 possessions per game, one of the slowest in the country. Huggins’s Kansas State team averaged just 67.6 possessions per game, which was about middle-of-the-pack in the NCAA. Unless Huggins has changed styles despite personnel that are used to a very slow pace (doubtful), I think the only explanation is that WVU has gone completely unchallenged. They have forced too many turnovers to keep the pace low, and have had an uncharacteristic number of runouts and quick possessions. I think their strategy against Tennessee will still be to drag the tempo down and force a halfcourt game.

Tennessee will be overmatched in height at every position, with WVU starting 7′0″, 6′8″, and 6′7″ across the front line and 6′6″ and 6′3″ at guard. Tennessee ought to be quicker at every position, though, so it will be interesting to see which team is better able to hide its weakness and take advantage of the mismatches that favor it. West Virginia has not taken care of the ball well (20.7% of possessions end in a TO), so Tennessee will likely look to exploit that with its quick hands and get some fast break buckets as a result.

If the Vols can come out shooting well as they did vs. MTSU, I think they can take WVU out of its game and control the tempo. If they do not shoot well, it will be a tough slog for Tennessee and Bruce’s boys will have to work for easy looks through dribble penetration and strong defense. In the end, I think Tennessee’s athleticism will rule the day, and the fact that PVAMU pushed the Vols to play a little more urgently can only help at this point. My prediction: Vols 81, Mountaineers 72.

Tennessee 89, Prairie View A&M 75

I think perhaps Tennessee’s basketball team heard how bad Prairie View A&M was supposed to be and took them a little lightly. Maybe PVAMU heard the same things and took it a little personally. Regardless, neither team played as I expected it to last night. The Panthers were hustling after rebounds and loose balls, getting second- and third-chance points, and nailing shots on the perimeter while the Vols were busy trying to find their defensive intensity and the rim on their free throws.

Tennessee went 21-47 at the line. That is remarkably bad. I think you and I could have gone out there and hit more free throws. Bruce said he’s certain that it’s in their head, and I’m sure he’s right. I don’t know how you fix that, but it needs to happen fast. We’ve got some good competition coming up next week and can’t afford to hit less than 45% of our free throws.

The Panthers did much of their damage through Aaron Smith, a 6-foot nothing, hundred and nothing senior guard with frosted tips that looked like something out of ‘N SYNC. Smith shocked the Vols and the crowd by nailing 5 of 9 three point shots and scoring 21 points, smoothly working off of screens that left the Vols a step behind. It was very frustrating to see PVAMU setting screens and freeing Lance Bass for open looks while we struggled to find All-American Chris Lofton good shots at the other end.

Lofton, meanwhile, was forcing things at the other end. He hit a couple of threes but was 3-13 shooting overall. Many of his misses were forced shots in the paint at times when it would have been better to kick out. I’ll admit, though, I was happy to see him aggressive. I just wish it had turned out better, both for him and JaJuan Smith, who went 2-12 from the field and 1-7 from the perimeter. When your top two shooters go 5-25, you know you’re having a rough night.

And then there’s Ramar Smith. Ramar likes to keep us on our toes, it seems, by looking like a dominant player at some times and then looking like he’s back in high school at others. He was 0-12 at the stripe. Let that simmer for a minute; for all of Shaquille O’Neal’s well-pubicized struggles at the line, did he ever go 0-12? Maybe he did, but being mentioned in the same breath with “Shaq” and “free throws” is not somewhere you want to be. Ramar also turned the ball over 4 times, including twice in a row early against a PVAMU press. It was a night to forget for Ramar. Let’s hope he makes all of us forget it by never repeating this performance.

So there you have it– the #7 backcourt in the country (according to Sports Illustrated) was outplayed tonight by Prairie View A&M, at least in certain areas. I could pile on about the rebounding stats and assists, which were well below what they needed to be, but let’s just look at the bright side before we lose our minds.

The frontcourt played well. Tyler Smith apparently played with a fever but was enough of a warrior to score 15 points on 5-6 shooting and grab 5 steals. Wayne Chism had 9 points, 8 boards, 2 blocks, and a steal in just 20 minutes, and Duke Crews had 6 points, 3 boards, 2 blocks, and a steal in just 8 minutes and hit both of his free throws. Ryan Childress was everywhere, grabbing loose balls and rebounds and scoring 14 points in 19 minutes. Brian Williams controlled the paint, scoring just 6 points but grabbing 8 boards in 13 minutes before banging knees with a Panther and leaving the game (Bruce says he’s OK). This is the best frontcourt play we’ve had this season, except free throws– the five combined for 10-19 at the line.

Maybe the Vols needed this. Maybe they needed a reality check before they head to Newark next Friday to play West Virginia. It was very painful to watch, but the Vols did some things well, forcing 30 turnovers and getting to the line 47 times. They just didn’t capitalize on the breaks they made, and that will get you beaten by good teams. Bruce will have a lot to teach from today as the Vols watch the film and start preparing for MTSU. Still, 3-0 is better than 2-1 and it could be worse– we could have gotten Gardner-Webbed.

BruceBall vs. Prairie View A&M Preview

The Prairie View A&M Panthers come to Thompson-Boling Arena tonight as the second of two sacrificial lambs laid before Tennessee in the Legends Classic. The Panthers are 1-1 on the season with a win over Div III (and non-scholarship) Schreiner University and a 56-point loss to Oklahoma State. PVAMU should be better than Arkansas-Monticello– they are a bad D-I team instead of a bad D-II team– but will still not provide too much of a test for the Vols. In 2006-2007, the Panthers ranked #335 out of 336 teams in Pythagorean win %, a measure of overall team performance. They were #335 in adjusted offensive efficiency and #293 in adjusted defensive efficiency. If you like numbers instead of ranks, PVAMU was beaten 111-80 per 100 possessions (adjusted). Not good.

It will be easy to pick out the things that PVAMU did well, as there are just a few.

• They forced turnovers (7th nationally)
• They defended the 3 (76th nationally)
• Their opponents shot FTs poorly (15th worst nationally)

Think about any other area of the game . . . Prairie View did it poorly a year ago. One stat really jumped out: they hit just 56.5% of their free throws. That number makes Tennessee look like free throw masters, as we shot 65.3% a year ago. They also play fast (45th in adjusted tempo) which I think will only hasten their demise against a team like Tennessee.

Their best returning player offensively is Brian Ezeh, a 6′5″ junior guard (who, according to UTSports, will for some reason not be starting). Ezeh’s offensive rating for the year was 96.1. If you’re not familiar with that stat, 100 is about average and 110+ is pretty good. Among Tennessee’s returning players, only Josh Tabb had a lower offensive rating than Ezeh (95.4). That should tell you how weak PVAMU was offensively. For comparison, Chris Lofton’s rating was 125.5.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Tennessee ring up 60 points by halftime in this game, and PVAMU’s defense is stronger than its offense. The Vols are playing on just one day’s rest though, so I won’t paint too rosy a picture in case Bruce’s boys come out with tired legs. My prediction: Vols 102, Panthers 58.

Vols 101, Boll Weevils 44

Well, I was 11 points off in each direction on my prediction. I expected the Vols to beat Arkansas-Monticello badly but I have to say they exceeded my expectations. Even with the walkons in the game late, the lead was expanding, with Tanner Wild and Quinn Cannington both nailing threes in the last few minutes. That pretty much summed up the night.

UA-M was overmatched at every position. After the Temple game I was disappointed, on some level, with nearly every player. I really think that the Vols played a better game in every phase Wednesday night, even considering the lesser competition. They just looked more crisp offensively. Ball movement was incredible (28 assists to 10 turnovers) and the Vols hit 76% of their 2-point baskets, largely because they created easy buckets in the paint.

You know that your team has played well offensively when every player that enters the game ends at least even on assists to turnovers. Tyler Smith and Brian Williams each had one assist and one turnover and Duke Crews had none of either, and every other scholarship player had more assists than turnovers. Tennessee’s guards (Smith, Smith, Tabb, Lofton, Tatum, Howell) had 21 assists to just 6 turnovers. Impressive.

Most impressive, though, was the defensive effort. UA-M had no answer. There were few uncontested shots and few passing lanes without Tennessee hands in them. JaJuan Smith, ladies and gentlemen, is just a machine. He only had 2 steals in the stat sheet but he had his hands on at least a half dozen other passes. He just has a knack for anticipating the pass and getting in the way. The Vols’ halfcourt defense is light years beyond where it started last year, and Pearl gives the credit to Steve Forbes for working the players very hard and getting them committed. They are allowing very little dribble penetration and are switching and playing help defense effortlessly. It’s very clear that this team likes to play defense and feeds off of it on the other end. I very much like what I’m seeing there. 44 points on 72 possessions says it all.

I have two major gripes. First, we went through the motions for awhile. In fact, I felt like we were just floating around for a good portion of the game, never really flooring it to blow them away. That changed with 13 minutes to go in the 2nd half, when a Lofton 3 ignited a flurry of offense and defense that would remind you of some similar runs from last year that put even good teams (Florida, Memphis) away.

The second gripe is rebounding. Tennessee outrebounded UA-M 39 to 36, but that margin should have been much wider with the advantage we had in size and athleticism. The Boll Weevils got 16 offensive rebounds and if you were at the game, it seemed like even more. We weren’t getting in position at times and at others we were just outworked (which was not true in any other phase of the game).

I won’t give a rundown of all the players in this game because they all played pretty well. I’ll just make a few comments:

• Duke played well in his 9 minutes– 5 points, 4 boards, and a block. 3-4 at the FT line. Bruce said after the game that he’s still the 5th man in a 4-man post rotation, but I’m wondering if some of that is just because of Duke’s transgressions and injury. He pretty much outplayed Williams tonight, though Williams didn’t hurt himself. I think before SEC play starts we will see Crews in that rotation, whether it means going to a larger rotation or Williams not getting as much PT.
• Lofton finally hit a 3, and honestly, even though he was just 1-5 from behind the arc, I think his path is clear now. He was hesitant every time he shot until he hit that one. The next one he fired up like it was nothing. It missed, but it looked like classic Chris. We should certainly not be worried. If there was a psychological issue I think it was eliminated with that first trey in the 2nd half.
• Tyler Smith can fill up a stat sheet. Remember how we all loved Dane because, even though he wouldn’t score much, he’d just dabble in everything– a few points, rebounds, assists, and steals every time on the court. I think Tyler is capable of something similar, but with much more scoring. Last night he had 3 blocks, an assist, and a steal. Against Temple he had 5 assists and 3 steals. He will be a lot of fun for Vol fans to watch.
• Jordan Howell played great. He hit two 3s, was 4-4 on FTs, had 5 assists, and grabbed a steal and a couple of boards. He is a very capable backup to Ramar.

Overall the Vols played a very complete game. Bruce will be happy with the way the guys executed despite the inferior competition. With 5 games in 11 days, this will be an interesting opportunity to see how his team retains its focus under pressure and with tired legs. Up next: Prairie View A&M.

BruceBall vs. Arkansas-Monticello Preview

Coach Pearl said after the exhibition win over LMU that he was disappointed that Tennessee didn’t get challenged in its two preseason warmups. With Arkansas-Monticello coming into town tonight, expect him to be disappointed again.

UA-M lost almost everyone off a team that went 9-17 last year in NCAA Division II play. The Boll Weevil starting lineup will likely consist of three guards (5′10″ Deron Brown, 6′1″ Duke Sturdivant, 6′4″ Justin Johnson) and two forwards (6′6″ Byron Wickes, 6′6″ Derek Easter). Of the 5, only Easter was on the team last year, and he didn’t play according to their stat sheets. Johnson is a freshman and Brown, Sturdivant, , and Wickes are JC tranfers. You might have noticed that this will be the rare game where Tennessee has a decided height advantage at multiple positions, as UA-M has no starters over 6′6″ and a 5′10″ PG.

The Boll Weevils will be opening their season tonight, having played only an exhibition game thus far (beating Division III Mississippi College 77-72). Sturdivant was the star of that show, ringing up 30 points in his first game with UA-M. The Boll Weevils are coached by Mike Newell, most famous for coaching the Arkansas-Little Rock team that upset Digger Phelps’s highly ranked Notre Dame team in the first round of the 1986 NCAA tournament. They play at a fairly quick pace– 68.8 possessions per game in 2006-2007, which would rank in the top 100 of NCAA Division I teams. Considering their lack of size, I would expect them to try to pick up the pace even further this year to avoid being bludgeoned in the halfcourt. They will also fire a lot of 3s if last year’s stats are any indication; 42.6% of their FG attempts were 3s and they hit almost 35%.

But you could throw darts at a stat sheet and probably have as good a chance at predicting what the Boll Weevils will do since they have gone through a complete personnel overhaul since last year. In the end, I don’t expect it to matter much. Tennessee will be faster, bigger, more skilled, and more athletic at every position and should beat the Boll Weevils as badly as they beat their exhibition foes, Cal (PA) and LMU. Bruce should use this game to evaluate our focus and to get the young guys and perhaps Duke Crews some good PT. My prediction– BruceBall 90, Boll Weevils 55.

Next up for Vols: Boll Weevils

Perhaps with a title like that you think I’m being clever. Maybe I’m going to make some kind of entomology joke. Some kind of play on words. Who knows. I’m tricksy like that.

But no. Literally, next up for the Vols are the Boll Weevils of Arkansas-Monticello. Apparently this school, which amazingly has 3 campuses, used to be Arkansas A&M. The boll weevil used to be such a threat to agriculture in the southwest U.S. that the Arkansas A&M athletic department decided it was nasty enough to strike fear in the hearts of their enemies. So . . . now the boll weevil is the mascot. Cool, huh? Yeah, not really.

The Boll Weevils are the first of two patsies coming into Thompson-Boling arena this week for the Legends Classic. Just how patsy are they? Well, Arkansas-Monticello is a Division II school that just got by Mississippi College 77-72 in their season-opening exhibition. Prairie View A&M, the second patsy, just lost their opener at Oklahoma State 104-48. Ouch.

I think the Legends Classic had trouble getting teams to participate since this is its inaugural year. The host teams (Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, New Mexico State) are pretty good finds, but their opening round opponents required scraping the bottom of the barrel just a smidge. Tennessee’s opponents in the preseason NIT last year (Fordham and UNC-Wilmington) were quite a bit better. This will hurt our RPI a little, but playing WVU and Texas in New Jersey will probably bring it back up considerably, as both of those teams will be threats in their conference and the NCAAs.

So let’s get fired up this week, folks. I mean, how can you take a boll weevil lightly? Just look at that thing! Check out that proboscis! That thing is like a cross between a mosquito and Frankenstein’s monster, only instead of drinking blood or tearing villagers’ arms off, this guy attacks your cotton plants. Scary.