SEC Tourney probabilities

Now that the regular season is over, we have a few days to prepare for the SEC tourney. Despite their struggles in this event (and venue) in the past, Tennessee is the favorite to win. Using KenPom’s generous collection of data, we can estimate the probability of all kinds of different outcomes. Let’s start just by looking at the Vols and their possible path through the tourney:

Round 1 (bye)

Opponent: boredom and complacency

Probability of advancing beyond this round: 100%

Round 2

Opponent: Winner of South Carolina (E5) vs. LSU (W4)

Probability of advancing beyond this round: 89.3%

The round 1 matchup between SC and LSU is a virtual coin toss. According to the latest data, South Carolina is a 50.7% favorite to win, although LSU won the teams’ only regular season meeting (62-55 in Baton Rouge). Statistically it doesn’t much matter which of the two wins for Tennessee; the chances of victory are almost identical (89.5% vs. LSU and 89.2% vs. SC). From a subjective standpoint and also based on Tennessee’s performance against the two, it seems like we’d rather see South Carolina, but then again it’s also hard to beat a team three times.
Round 3 (semifinals)

Opponent: Winner of Arkansas (W2) vs. Auburn (W6) / Vandy (E3) winner

Probability of advancing beyond this round: 66.4%

Arkansas is about 61% to come into this semifinal game, with Vandy at about 36% and Auburn at about 3%. Obviously we’d love to see Auburn in this game, as that would maximize our chances of of winning (we’d be about 93% to beat AU on a neutral floor). That seems highly unlikely, though, as Arkansas and Vandy are both likely NCAA tourney teams. One of the two will most likely be in the semis. Between them, UT would probably rather play Vandy, both from a statistical standpoint (76% chance of beating Vandy vs. 72% for Arkansas) and from a matchup standpoint. I think Tennessee would like its chances better against Vandy– outside memorial– than against Arkansas.

Round 4 (championship game)

Opponent: winner of opposing bracket: Mississippi State (W1), Kentucky (E2), Ole Miss (W3), Florida (E4), Alabama (W5), Georgia (E6)

Probability of tournament title: 49.9%

The opposing bracket is much more wide open, with 4 of the 6 teams having a 14.5% or better chance of emerging from the semifinals. MSU is the favorite at 40.6%, but Kentucky (23.8%), Florida (15.5%), and Ole Miss (14.5%) are all threats. Tennessee would be the favorite against any of them, but from a matchup standpoint we’d probably rather see Florida than anyone else. Kentucky, even without Patrick Patterson, plays a slow-as-hell, boring-as-hell game that would be frustrating. Ole Miss and Mississippi State both have enough inside presence with enough guard play to hurt the Vols as well.

Of course, in this league, there’s always a chance you could see Alabama or Georgia find its way into the title game. It seems to happen about every other year that a team that was dead in the water comes through to the final game. In that case, UT would probably be okay with either opponent but might prefer UGA.

In general, it says something about UT and about the SEC that UT is even money to win the title. Only in Kentucky’s days of dominance was the field an even bet against the favorite. The SEC is definitely having a down year, and Tennessee is definitely its shining star at this point.

It’s tricky, though. Tennessee struggles in that dome. In all sports. They also have a very spotty history in this tournament, often not making the weekend play even with an opening round bye. So even though the data suggest that Tennessee is likely to get into the finals and pretty good bet to win, Vol fans are going to be a little more skeptical until we see a good game in the Georgiadome.