BruceBall vs. Kentucky preview

Coming off a tough loss to Vanderbilt, Tennessee will look to get back on the horse and take another step closer to winning an SEC championship. With four days of rest in between games, hopefully the Vols can shed any fatigue (and illness) that may have plagued them against Vanderbilt.

Kentucky comes into the game having won 9 of its last 10, including road wins at Georgia, Auburn, and LSU. The Wildcats’ lone loss in this stretch was an ugly one, however—a 41-point thumping from Vandy in Memorial Gym. Kentucky has been very solid this SEC season, posting a 10-3 record, putting them just a game back from the Vols in the East and in the SEC overall. They had struggled mightily in the pre-conference schedule but seem to have found themselves.

Who they got? Kentucky has talent, despite its fans’ assertions that Tubby Smith left the cupboard bare. The Wildcats are led by senior guards Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford. Bradley possesses excellent speed and quickness, and is also a pretty good shooter (39% from 3, 85% at the stripe). He is a solid offensive player (O-rating of 109.3, 15.8 PPG) and gets to the line frequently (160^th nationally in FT rate). He also leads the wildcats in assists and steals, ranking in the top 500 nationally in both.

Crawford is an aggressive shooter, taking almost 30% of Kentucky’s shots when he is on the floor. He has been decent this year from the arc (36%) but can do even better and will hit threes in bunches at times. Crawford leads the team in scoring at 16.8 PPG, and has the 3^rd best O-rating (107.5).

The Wildcats got some horrible news today, as tests indicated that freshman star Patrick Patterson has a stress fracture in his ankle, and will miss the remainder of the season. Patterson is a force in the lane that Kentucky cannot easily replace.

After their big three, the Wildcats want to get as much production as they can out of Derrick Jasper and Jodie Meeks, two sophomore wings that have spent a lot of time out due to injury this season. They are solid players and can provide a spark off the bench. Patterson’s teammates in the post, Mark Coury, Perry Stevenson, and Ramon Harris, are not major scoring threats but are solid defenders and rebounders.

What Kentucky does well. Offensively, the Wildcats do most of the their damage in the paint (63^rd in 2-point FG%) and at the stripe (29^th in free throw rate, 16^th in FT %). Defensively they are a very solid team, ranking 37^th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency. In particular, they hold opponents to a low shooting percentage (18^th in defensive eFG%) and block a lot of shots (33^rd).

Where Kentucky struggles. Offensively they are pretty average overall, ranking 100^th in adjusted efficiency. They are especially turnover prone (292^nd) and often get shots blocked (280^th). They don’t set up shots much (191^st in A/FGM) and don’t rebound especially well at either end (185^th on O, 113^th on D). On defense, they don’t force many turnovers (242^nd), and allow their opponents to shoot way too many free throws (294th).

Gameplan and style. The Wildcats are a slow-tempo team, averaging just 64.9 possessions (253^rd nationally). They will try to force the Vols into a halfcourt game, and succeeded in this during their first meeting in Lexington. Tennessee was unable to get enough points off turnovers, simply not getting opportunities to run. Ramel Bradley is a key player for both teams. If he gets into the lane or to the FT line often, Tennessee will struggle to keep Kentucky off the scoreboard. The Vols will have a little better time of it in the paint without Patterson clogging things up, and will hope to shut down UK’s inside scoring while keeping Crawford and Bradley as blanketed as possible on the perimeter. Kentucky’s supporting cast can also hurt the Vol defense if it gets too single-minded. Offensively, Tennessee needs to attack the basket the way it did against Memphis, going right at Kentucky’s shotblockers with Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism. Chris Lofton would love to go out with a bang against his home-state Wildcats, so perhaps we can look for him to let loose some bombs.

How things will go. First of all, getting back home is huge for Tennessee. It will be ready for a home crowd loaded down with orange. I think that is one key to the game. In addition, I think the Vols are going to be pretty pissed off, both for losing in Lexington to these Wildcats a few weeks back and for dropping their most recent contest to Vandy in Nashville. I think Tennessee will play one of its better games Sunday, giving Kentucky a whole lot of trouble in the process. The Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now, but I don’t think it’s enough for the more talented, hustling, motivated Vols– especially with no Patrick Patterson. My prediction: Vols 78, Wildcats 62.

Mid-range game should not be missed

I’ve been trying to tell people this the last few months and nobody seems to believe me. Finally, Ken Pomeroy gets back in my good graces by using actual games and providing a chart to prove it. Thanks very much for Ken’s work on this, and out of respect for his effort I’m going to make you click to see it and won’t repost it here.

See, people talk all the time about how the mid-range jumper is a lost part of the game, as if it is something to be missed. Well, the data says it should not be missed at all, as it holds little value.

Here’s the bottom line: the 20-22 foot three-pointer is the highest percentage jumpshot on the floor, and it’s worth THREE points. Anything inside that is hit at a lower rate and is worth just two. That means the eFG% for the 20-22 footer is dramatically higher than any jumpshot shorter than 20 feet. It’s a no-brainer, folks. The mid-range game is going away mostly because it is one of the least valuable areas of the game. I’ve recreated the chart KenPom made, this time using eFG to account for the fact that any shot from 20+ is worth 50% more. I didn’t bother to include the attempts line, since it doesn’t change.

Pretty dramatic, isn’t it? What surprises me most is that even long three-point attempts are, on average, better shots than 5-19 foot jumpers. Unbelievable. Of course, as Ken says, players shoot better than 62% from inside 5 feet, so that is easily a better option than even the 20-foot three-pointer, when it’s available.

This is certain to vary dramatically by player and somewhat by team, but this is a lot of data- 340,000 shots’ worth– so it certainly means something. You better believe that coaches know this, or at least the most alert ones do. Guarding the perimeter is essential because from an eFG standpoint, three-pointers are among the best in the game. Only getting right to the rim is better.

Thanks again to KenPom for putting this together.

Vols better be ready for improved Kentucky

I didn’t get to see the Ole Miss-Kentucky game last night, but I did note the box score. It looks like Kentucky’s defense was phenomenal, holding Ole Miss to 35% eFG and forcing 17 turnovers. UK didn’t play very well offensively– in fact, one wonders if the Rupperees should get some credit for this game, with Kentucky’s FT rate (63.4%) being more than triple that of Ole Miss’s (20.3%). It was at the line that Kentucky scored more than 1/3 of its points to take Ole Miss down.

Still, this is a W, and UK has been piling up the W’s in conference play. After going 6-7 in nonconference play, would anyone have believed that Kentucky would be sitting 10-3 in the SEC at this point? I’m shocked, frankly. They’re simply playing better basketball now, and are a genuine threat to UT, both Sunday and in the overall SEC standings. If The Vols needed any additional reasons to get up for Kentucky in Thompson-Boling Arena, that should provide it.

Guest posting

I’ll be doing a few posts this week over at Rocky Top Talk. Joel is out for a few days, so he’s asked a few of us to pitch in and keep the content moving. RTT is a great blog for Vol sports, and it is my pleasure to do some guest posting. Go check out my posts and all of the other great content at RTT.

Vandy 72, Tennessee 69

With a Memphis hangover, physical and mental fatigue, and a flu-ridden Tyler Smith, the Vols still had plenty of opportunities to beat the Commodores in Memorial Gym last night. They just couldn’t overcome their own poor decisions and poor shooting for long enough to do it.

There were plenty of bad decisions and nearly everyone on the team was guilty. Specifically, Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith combined for at least 5 ill-advised threes, and Ramar Smith made an ill-advised drive attempt at least twice– and that’s just in the 2nd half.

Point guard play has to improve. Ramar and Jordan are combining to give maybe 20% of what they are capable of. Howell can’t hit the broad side of a barn, and Ramar is in a big damn hurry all the time. It’s very frustrating to watch. Better PG play alone would have won the game last night, but we also got very little from Wayne Chism and almost nothing from Duke Crews and Brian Williams. Now that I think of it, how did we manage to only lose by three? We played poorly inside and out

I am not going to dwell on this, so this review is going to be cut short. But what does this mean in the grand scheme? Time will tell. We may have needed this sort of game to propel us to bigger and better things. Specifically, we need to win at least 2 of the last 3 to win the SEC outright, and one of those needs to be against Kentucky on Sunday. Maybe we needed a wakeup call, once again, to remind us that we can’t waltz into a game– especially against a talented team– and just expect to win because we are Tennessee. Part of our game is effort and focus, and if that isn’t there, we aren’t going to win against a lot of teams. So Vols . . . use this. Sharpen your focus and your game. Beat Kentucky.

And get some damn flu shots next year, k?

Who were those guys in orange?

Talk about bad basketball IQ. We shot 33%, largely because of poor decisions. We looked mentally and physically fatigued.

More tomorrow on this completely unfun evening.

BruceBall vs. Vanderbilt preview

Tonight may be one of the biggest challenges of Bruce Pearl’s tenure at Tennessee. Coming off of an emotional, exhausting Saturday night win, the Vols will have to turn around and go to Nashville, where another top 20 team awaits on its home floor. It should be noted that Vanderbilt is also riding a home winning streak and has not lost in Memorial Gym this year.

Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean expectation puts Tennessee as a 2-1 favorite over the Commodores, but of course the numbers don’t reflect such things as psychological and physical fatigue, which the Vols may well be suffering. Vanderbilt has won six straight after losing 4 of 5 in mid January. They are ranked in the top 20 in both polls and #10 in the RPI, but are all the way down at #48 in pythag, one spot below the Florida Gators– who are the Vols’ next (and last) road test.

The bottom line is that the circumstances line up against Tennessee. The emotion, the timing, and the venue all favor Vandy, who will be plenty motivated to avenge a 20-point drubbing in Knoxville. Tennessee is the better team in a neutral environment, and we just have to hope it’s enough to overcome this environment.

Who they got? As I said last time the Vols played Vandy, the keys are Shan Foster and A.J. Ogilvy. In the last game, Tennessee did a great job on these two, holding them to a combined 26 points on 10-26 shooting. Foster is averaging 19.3 points per game, is shooting 45% from three, and is among the nation’s leaders in eFG% (15th) and O-rating (61st). He will take a large percentage of Vandy’s shots when he’s in the game (28% on average), and he’s in the game often– he averages 33.1 minutes of play.

Ogilvy will take a large number of the leftover shots– 27%– and also rates well in O-rating (212th). Averaging 17.1 points in 26.2 minutes, Ogilvy can be a force down low. He also ranks in the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and in the top 200 in shots bocked.

Alex Gordon is another scoring threat, averaging 11 points in 29.4 minutes and shooting 43% from behind the arc. Rounding out the starting lineup are Jermaine Beal (116.6 O-rating, 13.3% of shots, 120th in assist rate, 7.7 PPG in 27.4 minutes) and Ross Neltner (101.3 O-rating, 17.9% of shots, 495th in steals, 8.4 points in 26.1 minutes). The Commodores will go 10-deep, bringing guards Keegan Bell and George Drake and forwards Darshawn McClellan, Alan Metcalfe, and Andre Walker off the bench for 9-15 minutes apiece. Even though they will play 10, the starters will play a lot of minutes– Vandy ranks #207 in bench minutes.

What Vandy does well. Offensively they’re pretty good, ranking 40th in the country in adjusted efficiency. They shoot well from the floor (20th in eFG%) and are particularly good from the perimeter (40.6%). They are good free throw shooters (73.1%) and do an excellent job in passing to set up shots (9th in A/FGM).

Defensively they are decent but not great, ranking 73rd in efficiency. No statistics on this side stand out as particularly positive.

Where Vandy struggles. They will turn the ball over (104th), and don’t rebound well at all on the offensive (203rd) or defensive (193rd) ends. They tend to get shots blocked and don’t block many themselves.

Defensively they struggle in several ways. They give up a pretty high eFG% (114th), don’t force turnovers (191st), and don’t get their hands on enough loose balls. Vandy is 6th in the SEC in defensive efficiency.

Gameplan and style. Vandy is an up-tempo team, ranking 59th in pace. The Vols will like that. They are tall but don’t play tall; in other words, they don’t rebound well and don’t block shots. Vandy’s best bet is to keep Tennessee from bombing on the perimeter and try to overwhelm the Vols on the other end, likely with a barrage of their own threes. That leaves a tough matchup with Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism in the paint, and the Commodores will have to find an answer there.

Tennessee will run with Vandy and try to push the tempo even further. Chism, Crews, and Williams will have their hands full with Ogilvy, and much depends on how the game is called. If they can get physical with him on the defensive end, they will probably do a good job slowing him down. Shan Foster is a more tricky story. He struggled against the Vols in Knoxville, and is not likely to repeat that performance. Tennessee will need to keep a defender in his face at all times, and this is likely to be up to JaJuan Smith, J.P. Prince, and Josh Tabb. Offensively the Vols need to attack the basket, much as they did against Memphis. Relying on the three ball on the road is a tricky proposition, but then again Chris Lofton is due for some big makes. Memphis shut him down.

How it will go. I think Tennessee is going to come out sluggish in this one, hung over from a big weekend. And that’s okay as long as it is playing good defense. I have confidence that the offense will eventually get into the flow, but they can’t let Vandy get many easy looks or the Commodores can bury them with threes. Memorial Gym is an unreal homecourt advantage, and will be a lot to overcome. Then again, so was FedEx Forum. But then again again, this is twice in four days– not an easy task for any team. But this is the nation’s #1 team, and it is in position to win the SEC outright for the first time in 41 years with this win and one or two more. I think there will be enough motivation to snap out of the Memphis hangover in time to sqeak one out in Memorial. My prediction: Vols 81, Commodores 78.

Coaches make it official

Vols are this week’s #1– unanimously.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings

EDIT: AP is out as well at the same link. That one is not unanimous– more of what I expected.

A few nuggets

• Attention, Ken Pomeroy: the Vols held Memphis to 62 points in 67 possessions, with a TO rate of just 16.4%. One game does not prove you wrong but it does make me feel better.
• Speaking of Pomeroy, we’re still 14th in his ratings. I get his system and I understand why. The question is whether this type of rating underrates a team like Tennessee, or if we really aren’t as good as our ranking, record, and RPI say we are? BP’s Caleb Peiffer stated, before the game, that it was the former: “The Pomeroy system doesn’t see this game being as close as many are projecting it to be, because the numbers show that the Volunteers are an overrated team.” I may investigate this more deeply later.
• Rocky Top Talk’s Joel has made the big time. He had the opportunity to be heard on TV talking about the game Friday. Congrats to Joel. thankfully he and I both predicted the outcome poorly.
• I hope by now the players are no longer celebrating and are now working hard to prepare for Vandy. This is a short turnaround and another hostile environment. The state title is on the line.
• I also hope Derrick Rose is one-and-done.
• Bruce loving up on Erin Andrews at halftime . . . now that was priceless.

Tennessee 66, Memphis 62

By now you’ve probably read a couple dozen articles about the game, about what it means, and about how important it is for the Vols. I won’t delve too deeply into all that, because frankly I think we all understand what it means. Is there any wonder why Calipari wants this game out of Memphis?

How about Tyler Smith, J.P. Prince, and Wayne Chism? They scored 42 of the Vols’ 66 points, including the go-ahead basket (Smith) and two icing free throws (Prince). With the returning talent this year and three senior guards, who would have expected that when the Vols went on the road to beat the unbeaten, #1 team in the land, they’d be led by three guys standing 6′7″, 6′8″, and 6′9″? All three are Tennesseeans, by the way. Tyler grew up 4 hours from Memphis in Pulaski, and Wayne grew up an hour away in Bolivar. J.P. Prince grew up right around the corner and was even a ball-boy for UM when his dad was an assistant there. All three are familiar with Memphis and John Calipari. And you’d better believe Cal is familiar with them now.

Calipari thought if he locked Chris Lofton up, the remaining 4-on-4 game would easily go in his favor. Boy, was that a miscalculation. Antonio Anderson and Andre Allen did a great job locking Chris down, keeping him from getting any good looks. But Cal had misjudged the outcome of this defensive effort. A series of clutch shots and clutch defensive stops by the other Vols shifted the game in Tennessee’s favor and, as if to direct a neener neener at Calipari, Lofton got to the free throw line to ice the game.

It’s just something you can’t do to these Vols. You can’t take the star away and expect the rest of the team to cower in fear. These Vols are too poised and too talented to let you beat them so simply. They will come at you in waves, from the inside, the outside, and sometimes from the inside-out– see Chism’s 3-5 effort from the arc.

I’ll tell you what else Calipari wasn’t expecting to see. That Tennessee would play man defense for the last 35 minutes of the game and yet totally neutralize his vaunted DDM offense. Not only did the Vols expose Memphis’s offensive execution problems Saturday night, but they also exposed the offensive philosophy as a whole. DDM is predicated on winning 1-on-1 matchups and in the case of zones, outhustling the defense on the glass. Tennessee showed that you didn’t have to play zone to keep the tigers from getting to the rim. Bruce employed a sagging, switching man defense against the Tigers, and not even the speedy Derrick Rose could get all the way through in the 2nd half. He had to settle for contested mid-range jumpers (and to his credit, he hit them).

By staying in man defense, the Vols did not yield any ground on the glass either. They outrebounded the Tigers an astounding 50-34 and outscored them 36-16 in the paint. I say this exposed the whole philosophy primarily for two reasons:

1. A team that can match up to you in quickness can play man defense and still keep you from penetrating too much. This is the sort of team you face in the NCAA tournament.
2. The complete lack of screens in this offense means that if a player can’t do it himself, he’s not going to get it done at all. A sagging, switching man defense on the perimeter would have been far less effective had the Tigers set some simple screens. It would have allowed Rose in the paint on occasion or at least given some wide open looks on the perimeter. Even Cal saw the writing on the wall, and in crunch time the Tigers attempted to set screens to free their guards. It was too late.

The bottom line, strategically, was this:  Bruce Pearl outcoached John Calipari on both ends. Cal had no answers for the man defense that Pearl threw at him; only a stunning performance by Derrick Rose kept them in the game down the stretch. He also employed a bad strategy defensively, sacrificing help defense to lock Lofton up. Pearl specifically used Lofton as a decoy at times, leading to easy buckets for the Vols.

Later today, the polls will come out, and they will show a new #1. Now, you and I both know that the polls in basketball don’t mean anything as far as championships go. They do, however, mean something in public perception and recognition. This week, the ESPN bottom line will show a little “1″ next to Tennessee. Tuesday night and again Sunday, that little “1″ will be there in the TV coverage of the Vols’ games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. That’s publicity you can’t buy. That publicity has to be earned. The Vols earned it, and more, Saturday night at the FedEx forum. Enjoy it. Rankings don’t last . . . but memories sure do. We will remember this feeling . . . and so will Memphis.