Oh no! The shotblocker is coming!

Some Vol fans, including myself, are concerned about how much Jarvis Varnardo is going to hurt us this weekend. There’s a perception that under Bruce Pearl, teams with dynamic shotblockers have generally given us more trouble than teams without such a presence. After doing some research, I think this is a misconception based on a few highly memorable games and blocks.

When I started looking into the history and stats, I was convinced I’d find something remarkable, some amazing discrepancy between our results against teams with good shotblockers and against teams without. The difference I found was unremarkable, which to me was a remarkable find.

First, to define what a “dynamic shotblocker” is. I think a fair assessment would be that a player is a dynamic shotblocker if he blocks a high percentage of shots while he is on the court. Thankfully our buddy Ken Pomeroy provides that very statistic. I will define a “dynamic shotblocker” as an individual who ranks in the top 50 nationally in this statistic.

I need to say a little about what sorts of teams have dynamic shotblockers. Typically, they’re very talented teams overall, with some ability at the other positions on the floor. Talented teams generally have talented post players. There have been a few exceptions on Tennessee’s schedule the last three years (UNC-A’s Kenny George, for example) but those are rare. Prior to 2007-2008, Pearl’s Vols played 13 games against teams with dynamic shotblockers and only 4 have come against teams outside of the pythag/Pomeroy top 50 (Tennessee is 3-1 in these games). We need to be comparing apples-to-apples, so the data I’m going to look at involves only good teams– top 50. Some have dynamic shotblockers and some don’t.

Here’s what I found. In the past 2 seasons, BruceBall is 16-14 against the top 50 teams. Nine of these games were against teams with dynamic shotblockers:

2006:

• Steven Hill, Arkansas (4th). Home loss.
• Tyrus Thomas, LSU (10th). Road loss.
• Joakim Noah, Florida (24th). Home win.
• Joakim Noah, Florida (24th). Road win.
• Joey Dorsey, Memphis (38th). Road loss.

2007:

• Steven Hill (9th) and Darian Townes (29th), Arkansas. Road win.
• Greg Oden, Ohio State (10th). Road loss.
• Greg Oden, Ohio State (10th). Neutral loss.
• Joey Dorsey, Memphis (37th), Home win.

Tennessee is 4-5 in these games, leaving the Vols with a 12-9 record in games against top 50 teams with no dominant shotblocker. That’s a 0.444 record vs. a 0.571 record. Seems like a difference, perhaps? First of all, I’d say with such a small sample size that’s not much of a difference. But let’s dig a little deeper anyway:

Of the five losses, four came against Elite 8 (2006 Memphis, 2006 LSU) or better (2007 OSU) teams. Of the four wins, three also came against elite 8 or better teams (2006 UF twice, 2007 Memphis).

Greg Oden had Conley, Cook, Butler, and a host of other talented players on the floor with him. Tyrus Thomas had SEC player of the year Glen Davis sharing the lane with him. Joey Dorsey was probably the least talented of the starters on the 2006 Memphis team, plus we beat him the next year. Steven Hill had Ronnie Brewer on the perimeter, and again we beat him (and co-tower Darian Townes) on the road the next year. Are we losing games to big-time shotblockers, or are we losing games to great teams who happen to have big-time shotblockers?

Let’s look a little more, this time at Tennessee’s games against the top 50 teams without dynamic shotblockers. In 2006, this included Elite 8 Texas and a whole host of teams not nearly as good: South Carolina (NIT), Vandy (NIT), Kentucky (2nd round NCAA), Alabama (2nd round NCAA), Wichita State. In 2007, this group included Elite 8 UNC, national champ Florida, and a bunch of teams that weren’t as great: Texas (2nd round NCAA), Vandy (Sweet 16), Mississippi State (NIT), Kentucky (2nd round NCAA), LSU (2nd round NCAA), and Virginia (2nd round NCAA).

As you can see, the slate of teams without big-time shotblockers simply isn’t as daunting. Seven of the Vols’ 9 games against dynamic shotblockers happened to be against top (Elite 8 ) teams. Of the 22 games against good teams without dynamic shotblockers, just four came against Elite 8 teams (and Tennessee was 2-2 in these games).

One could argue, I suppose, that the dynamic shotblockers are what make a good team more like an Elite 8 team. But that only goes further to the point– these shotblockers are good against everyone, not just UT. The bottom line would appear to be that Tennessee, understandably, loses some games against elite teams, and it seems to do it whether the team has a dynamic shotblocker or not (3-4 with, 2-2 without). Against dynamic shotblockers NOT on elite teams, Tennessee is 4-2 (1-1 vs. the top 50).

For what it’s worth, the Vols have faced three dynamic shotblockers so far in 2008: UNC-A’s Kenny George, South Carolina’s Sam Muldrow, and Gonzaga’s Austin Daye. The Vols are 3-0 against these teams.