Still in transit, what a huge win

Howdy Vol fans from a lovely La Quinta Inn. The room smells funny and there are a few cigarette burns here and there, but the high-speed internet works and I’ve got Kentucky over FSU by 14 late in the 4th on the TV. Life is still good.

What a win for BruceBall! Prior to the win over Xavier I wasn’t too positive on what the Vols had been doing on the court, but in these last two games they’ve looked like the team we all thought they could be. They’ve forced turnovers, knocked down timely shots, and outhustled their foes en route to a road win in Cincinnati and, for all practical purposes, another road win in Seattle. Gonzaga is a very solid team and you could see what kind of potential they have with a healthy Josh Heytvelt and an effective Jeremy Pargo.

Speaking of Pargo, credit JaJuan Smith with a phenomenal defensive effort by holding Pargo to 8 points on 1-7 shooting with 6 turnovers. JaJuan was absolutely the MVP in this game, though we got good games from several players.

These wins will pay off big time in March, both in seeding and in experience in a rough environment. More importantly, the team really seems to be coming together right now and improving from game-to-game. Ramar Smith and Wayne Chism are still not what we expected, but both are playing so hard right now that I can’t be upset with them. The kind of effort they are giving, especially on defense, is what a coach looks for from every player. I am confident that their offensive game will improve over time, and for now they are doing enough to help us win.

It’s Beer Thirty at the La Quinta, so I’m not going to type anymore. By next Monday I hope to be back in a regular routine, posting every day if possible. Be patient with me!

Oh, and HAPPY NEW YEAR everyone! Be safe and have fun as you celebrate tonight.

No Gonzaga Preview Coming

We’re in the middle of moving and I’ll be out of pocket for the next few days, and I don’t have time for a full preview for the Zags. My apologies to you loyal readers, and if you’re not a loyal reader . . . then I don’t owe you jack. Read more often and we’ll talk.

The Zags are a very good, up-tempo team with a lineup of scorers. Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heytvelt are excellent players who will be in a position to attack UT’s weaknesses. Bruce better have a pretty good defensive gameplan in place. With that said, I think UT will like this matchup a little better than Xavier and will have opportunities to score in transition and wreak havoc defensively. My prediction: Vols 91, Bulldogs 86

Tennessee 82, Xavier 75

When Tony Jones and Bruce Pearl stack the Vols’ schedule with quality teams, they envision nationally televised contests and resume-quality wins to boost RPI and NCAA seed. The Vols grabbed ahold of both yesterday by beating the Xavier Musketeers on their home floor in the Cintas Center in front of an ESPN national audience.

Xavier is very much a quality opponent, with some marquee wins and high efficiency marks. In fact, Xavier is still above Tennessee in pythag (#19 vs. Tennessee’s #25) even after the Vols handed them a loss. They are the class of the Atlantic 10, which sports 8 pythag top-100 teams, and you can bet the Musketeers will win 20-25 games and grab an NCAA tournament bid when March rolls around.

Tennessee, which struggled mightily away from Thompson-Boling Arena last year (6-9), has now won three straight road/neutral tests and is 4-1 away from home before Christmas. That alone provides a nice boost to Tennessee’s RPI, and beating quality teams like Xavier and WVU are only going to improve that further.

We saw some great things in this game. First of all, Arizona fans and coach Lute Olsen probably would not recognize this J.P Prince fellow. Prince went on the offensive vs. Xavier, piling up 23 points on 9-15 shooting in 20 minutes of play. With JaJuan Smith having an abysmal offensive game and Chris Lofton not terribly effective either, Prince took it upon himself to aggressively attack the basket. Time and time again, Prince made his man look foolish en route to an easy deuce. Very smooth and athletic, Prince has become the tall, rangy wing that Tennessee fans have been dreaming of since Vincent Yarbrough failed to live up to expectations. He also may be the piece of the puzzle that this year’s Vols had been missing.

In addition to Prince’s efforts, the Vols got improved play out of Wayne Chism (12 points, 3 steals, 1 TO) and Ramar Smith (9 points, 4 steals, 3 assists, 1 TO), which bodes well for the future. Those two are as talented as anyone on the Vol roster but had been very disappointing early in the season. Tyler Smith was his usual steady self (12 points, 3 steals, 2 assists, 0 TO).

Lofton was aggressive and played solid defense, especially in the 2nd half. He attempted only five threes but seven two-point baskets, a far cry from previous outings. Lofton got to the hole effectively but got zero respect from the refs, getting hammered each time and getting no calls. He should have been to the line at least three times and had closer to 15 points, but those opportunities were denied.

The officials, in fact, were just lousy. Tennessee got the short end of the stick, but the calls were extremely inconsistent both ways. Xavier coach Sean Miller was assessed a technical in the first half for arguing, seemingly innocuously, a call that he disagreed with, and Coach Pearl managed to one-up him by getting T’d up when he wasn’t talking to the refs at all.

Between the officiating and a rowdy crowd at the Cintas Center, the Vols had a lot to overcome against a very good Xavier team. This experience, and of course the win, will pay major dividends down the road as the Vols have the SEC slate and three huge non-conference games (Gonzaga, Ohio State, Memphis) left to play.

Tennessee’s defense left a bit to be desired at times in the game, but for the last four minutes it was smothering, forcing Xavier into mistakes and getting transition buckets as a result. The Vols were also badly outrebounded (39-26) so there is plenty to learn from and improve upon. But Coach Pearl and the players have a lot to be proud of, and this will definitely be a feather in their cap when March rolls around.

Up next: Gonzaga and another major road test in front of a big (ESPN2) audience. The Vols need to build off of this win and keep improving, and this game showed that they are definitely capable of stepping up their play when it counts. Let’s hope the improvement by Wayne and Ramar is a permanent change. If it is, the Vols will be very tough to beat on anybody’s floor.

BruceBall vs. Xavier Preview

Now it begins. We’ve all known that the BruceBall schedule was going to be hard, and we’ve seen the boys take on some tough teams already (WVU, Texas, WKU). But in the next few weeks, they will be traveling to Xavier, Gonzaga, and Memphis, hosting Ohio State, and just for fun, starting SEC play. This is where Tennessee will learn what it is made of, and will go a long way to determining what kind of NCAA seed it can earn.

Xavier has been an interesting team this year. For awhile they sat in the top 5 in pythag, playing efficient ball while knocking off Indiana, Creighton, and a motivated Cincinnati team and losing just once to a scrappy Miami (OH) team on the road. Then the wheels came off in an ugly 77-55 loss at Arizona State, and one has to wonder which Xavier team Tennessee is going to see this weekend. The Musketeers are still playing good ball overall (pythag is still ranked #15 nationally), and have been very good at home.

Xavier is efficient on both ends (#22 offensively and #25 defensively), takes care of the ball (#15 in TO), and rebounds well (#45 OR, #65 DR). They don’t take a great number of perimeter shots (#160) and don’t play fast (#194), so their style will be an interesting contrast with Tennessee’s. They have a very balanced attack, with six players averaging double figures in scoring. Their most efficient players are 6′6″ F B.J. Raymond (125.2), 6′7″ F Derrick Brown (120.9), and 6′9″ F Josh Duncan (120.6), though it’s questionable whether Duncan will play against Tennessee after suffering a minor knee injury against Cincinnati. Their shots are spread around too, with no player taking more than 24% of them in his time in the game. Sizewise, neither team has much of an advantage, with Tennessee having the edge at a couple of positions and Xavier having the edge at a couple of others.

Depth may be a concern for Xavier. The Musketeers only have seven players who have played more than 30% of the team’s minutes, while Tennessee has seven plus Brian Williams and Ryan Childress, who should both play extensively. The depth situation gets a lot worse for Xavier if Duncan doesn’t play.

I expect Tennessee to try to force Xavier to play its tempo and make it a full-court game. Xavier will want to slow Tennessee down and avoid that. Post play will be key– Tennessee will need good games out of Brian Williams, Tyler Smith, Ryan Childress, and especially Wayne Chism if it is to keep from getting hammered down low and on the boards. It would also be nice if the Vols’ shots are falling, especially in transition. Lofton needs to step up and JaJuan needs to bring his A-game. I like the matchups when J.P. Prince is on the floor, as his length will be a decided advantage considering our other wings are so undersized.

I’ve got a bad feeling about this game. I think playing on the road will affect the Vols and I’m concerned that lack of turnovers will allow Xavier to slow the game down and exploit Tennessee’s inconsistency in halfcourt defense. But in the end, I am a confessed homer and Bruce Pearl worshiper, so I cannot and will not pick against us at this point. I’ll say that we get just enough from the perimeter shooting to keep Xavier at arm’s length, and we’ll sink a few free throws late to bring it home. My prediction: Vols 71, Musketeers 67.

Tennessee 86, UNC-Asheville 73

On a night where the crowd’s oohs and aahs were directed more at UNC-A’s 7′7″ giant of a center than at Tennessee’s performance, Tennessee did just enough to win. The Vols had a big lead early in the second half, but squandered it with inefficient offense and downright terrible defense, allowing UNC-A to get the lead down to single digits before closing the game out.

First, I have to talk about Kenny George. I knew going into this game that George was going to be interesting to watch, but I had no idea how dramatically a player that tall can change the way the game is played. George was very slow and did not seem especially skilled, but his sheer size (and pretty good court awareness) made the game different on both ends of the floor in his 22 minutes. When he first entered the game early in the first half, the crowd cheered– this is the first time I can ever remember the crowd cheering an opposing player merely for entering the game. He’s simply a monstrosity– in a good way– for UNC-Asheville, and a major thorn in the side of its foes.

At least 6-8 times, a UT player would penetrate the lane, then stop and turn around as  if to say “oops, I forgot about him there for second.” He made everyone tentative, creating about a 10-foot box around himself where no Vol dared go. When they did venture inside his domain, he blocked their shot as often as not. Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith made some nice floaters that went about 5 feet above the rim to avoid his reach, but in large part the Vols simply knew better than to bother.

When UNC-A was on the offensive end, George was a key part of their offense. Imagine trying to work through a 7′7″, 360 lb screen and you’ll understand why. They also ran the give and go effectively, often combining this with the natural screen George’s body provided. It was comical, almost surreal to watch Brian Williams (who got most of the minutes when George was on the floor) body up to George. The crowd was murmuring, even laughing every time UNC-A had an in-bounds play from under the basket. The officials had to wait to start play several times because Williams was trying so hard to push George off the block. They warned Williams several times and called him for a couple of fouls as well. For his part, the Death Star (who, next to George, looked unbelievably small) did a phenomenal job working against a man so much larger than himself. He’d probably never played a guy with any kind of size advantage on him– much less one so significant.

And now back to the rest of the action. Tennessee’s defense played excellent ball for the first 15 minutes of the game, and average for the next 10. The 10 after that were abysmal, with UNC-A scoring on nearly every possession. Our guards simply could not keep up with Smithson (21 points) and Garland (22). They were beat off the dribble repeatedly, either for easy buckets or clear kickouts to an open shooter when Tennessee’s help defense collapsed to the lane. It made it clear, to me, why Tennessee had so much trouble with Texas’s phenomenal backcourt. We just don’t seem to do well in one-on-one situations against quick guards.

Offensively we did better, but had a lapse that coincided with UNC-A’s 10-minute run at the other end. Partly it was because George was so disruptive, causing the Vols to try too many perimeter shots (which we weren’t hitting). Partly we just weren’t playing well.

Lofton had a pretty good game overall, finally getting to the basket and the foul line like he was a year ago. He was 3-5 on two-point baskets and 6-6 from the line, offsetting another night of iffy shooting from the perimeter (4-12). He did carry the team, which was good to see. Tyler Smith was his efficient self (12 pts on 5-7 FGs, 6 boards, 2 blocks, 2 steals), Brian Williams played very well under the circumstances (8 points on 3-5 FG, 8 boards, 0 TOs), and JaJuan was streaky but effective (13 points, 3-6 from 3, 3 assists). Jordan Howell played pretty well offensively (9 points, 4 assists, 2 TO) but was too often a victim defensively.

I felt that the most impressive Vol tonight was J.P. Prince.  This was the first time I had gotten to see him in live action, and he played an excellent game. He scored 13 points on 6-9 shooting, grabbed 4 boards, and had 7 assists to just one turnover in 26 minutes of action. He had a couple of highlight dunks off of lob passes and made some beautiful passes himself. To me he has answered questions about his ball handling. If we need him to, J.P. can play point guard.

Ramar and Wayne continue to struggle offensively. The combined for 1-9 from the field and scored 5 points. At least Ramar had 4 assists to just one turnover; Wayne had 3 TOs and no assists, and grabbed only 3 rebounds in 19 minutes.

In all, I’m happy to see the win but I have mixed feelings. The newcomers continue to play very well, while the veterans are either streaky (Chris, JaJuan) or ineffective (Ramar, Wayne). Josh Tabb and Ryan Childress were ineffective at least partly due to injury. Our defense needs to be more consistent– the ability is there to really clamp down but it seems like we get complacent and let the opponent make runs at us. I saw some things that were promising tonight but if we play with this sort of inconsistency, we will lose the next two games @Xavier and @Gonzaga.

BWAHAHAHAHAHA, part 2

Kentucky lost a squeaker to Houston last night, 83-69. The final margin was pretty indicative of the game– a game in which Kentucky was never competitive beyond the 10:00 mark of the first half. That makes four losses in a row for the Wildcats, and back-to-back losses to Conference USA teams. It’s not that often that we get to laugh so hard at our enemies to the north, so I will relish every opportunity and just hope we do not return the favor anytime soon. Kentucky is now 4-5, including losses to Gardner-Webb, UAB, and now Houston.

If the Wildcats’ internet presence is indicative of the way their fanbase feels, they don’t fault Billy Gillispie for these losses at all. They fault the players, and especially they fault Tubby Smith. They say he left the program with no talent, and didn’t coach the players that he did recruit. Let’s see.

• Last year’s UK team went 21-11 and earned an NCAA tournament berth.
• From that team, UK only lost Randolph Morris, Bobby Perry, Sheray Thomas, and Lucasz Obrzut.
• To replace those guys, Kentucky signed Patrick Patterson (*****), Alex Legion (****), and A.J. Stewart (***).

I’d take that trade. Morris was only so-so at UK and was a cancer. Perry was a decent player and the other two were warm bodies. Patrick Patterson is a major upgrade over Morris and the Wildcats had plenty of returning wings to replace Perry’s 8.4 PPG.

Yet somehow the ‘Cats are 4-5 and look as bad as their record would indicate, and Gillispie gets none of the blame? Tubby had these guys at 21-11, the talent was arguably upgraded, and they are getting blown out by C-USA teams? Hm. I’ll say no more and you can draw your own conclusions.

BruceBall vs. UNC-Asheville Preview

The Vols return to Thompson-Boling Arena tonight for their first home game in nearly three weeks. Coach Pearl and a lot of Vol fans have some questions that they are dying to get answered, and with road tests at Xavier and Gonzaga (in Seattle) coming up, answers need to come tonight.  Will Chris Lofton return to form? Will Wayne Chism do enough to keep Brian Williams out of the starting lineup? Will Ramar Smith start looking like March 2007 instead of December 2006?

If we want those questions positively answered it needs to start tonight against UNC-Asheville, a team off to a nice 8-2 start. The Bulldogs haven’t faced the stiffest of competition, though– three of their wins are not against D-I teams, and their best win is over #289 (pythag) Western Carolina. Yes, you read that right– their best win. Their other wins are over teams ranked #293, 296 (x2), and 298. Their losses were of better quality, however: an overtime loss to #150 ETSU and a 14-point loss to #51 Virginia Tech on the road. In terms of efficiency, however, UNC-A is simply not a very good team.

The Bulldog offense ranks #124 (adjusted).  They shoot well (54.9% eFG, 74.7% FT) and distribute the ball well (#28 nationally with assists on 64.5% of baskets). Their most efficient player is Reid Augst, a 6′6″ Jr. forward, but he’s not a featured player, using only 16.3% of possessions despite his 124.1 ORtg.  Their primary weapons are G K.J. Garland (106.5 ORtg, 25.6% poss.), C Vincent James (97.6, 24.8%), and G Bryan Smithson (115.4, 23.0%).

The Bulldog lineup is not very tall (6′0″, 6′1″, 6′6″, 6′7″, 6′7″), and in fact their roster sports only one player above 6′7″.  However, that one player over 6′7″ is well over 6′7″. I’m talking about a 7′7″, 360 lb behemoth named Kenny George (see pic).  To my knowledge, no Tennessee center has ever matched up with a man that big. George will play in the game in spurts and averages more than 20 minutes per game, but he does not start for the Bulldogs.  He plays an efficient 20 minutes though, pulling down 8.6 boards, scoring 11.6 points, and blocking 6 shots per game. His ORtg is a solid 111.4. George has trouble running the floor and gets easily winded, so if Tennessee turns this game into an up-and-down affair it may be able to limit his impact.

Defensively the Bulldogs are very weak, ranking #319 out of 341 teams. They do a few things well– block shots (thanks to George), don’t send the opponent to the line much, and force their opponents into a low FG% on two-point shots (thanks to George). They force very few turnovers (17.8%, #327) and give up quite a few themselves (22.0%, #169), so look for Tennessee to get some extra scoring opportunities.

This should be a game that Tennessee wins easily, so if the Vols struggle it will be cause for concern. Some things to watch for:

• Rotation: specifically, how much Prince plays and at whose expense (Tabb again?)
• Does Bruce bring Brian Williams in whenever Kenny George hits the floor? At least Williams is closer to his weight. George only has him by 90 lbs.
• Will Ramar and Wayne have their heads in the game and play closer to their potential?
• Chris Lofton. UNC-A tends to give a lot of wide-open perimeter looks, so Chris should be able to have a huge game if he finds his shot.
• Tempo: If the Vols can push the tempo of the game, they may be able to break 100.

In the end. Tennessee will likely overpower UNC-A, but it will be very important to see progress in this game, particularly to get Wayne, Ramar, and Chris some confidence back before the team hits the road. Just a guess– I think Wayne has a good game. My prediction: Vols 101, Bulldogs 66.

Tennessee 88, WKU 82

I didn’t get to see the game, and only heard the last 2 minutes or so, but that was enough to get a good feel for the story of the night. Brian Williams is all grown up.

When I scan through the box score, there is a lot not to like. We gave up 82 points in 76 possessions. Not good. Chris Lofton was 4-12 from three and 0-2 from two. Not good. We were outrebounded 44-43. Not good. We only forced 14 TOs. Not good. Ramar and Wayne went a combined 1-8 for 5 points. Really not good. We shot 64.3% from the line. Not good.

But you know, there is a lot to like too. For starters, we won. In a neutral environment against a probable NCAA tourney team, we won. I’ll take that.

But there are some stats to feel good about too. 21 assists on 26 made baskets with just 11 TOs. 5 blocks. 11 steals. Tyler Smith’s line: 16 points, 6 boards, 4 assists, 2 TOs, and a steal, and 10-13 from the line. JaJuan Smith’s line: 19 points, 5 boards, 4 assists, 2 TOs, and a steal. 4 assists and 1 TO for Jordan Howell. J.P. Prince had 8 points, 7 boards, 2 assists, and 2 steals in 19 minutes in his Tennessee debut.

Then there’s the Death Star. First, the bad: he was 0-4 from the foul line.

And the good. 8-11 from the field. 16 points. 14 rebounds, 7 offensive. 0 TOs. 3 blocks. 1 steal. 22 quality minutes. More than anything else, he simply played his position. He stayed around the basket to clean up the glass, put the ball in the hole, and disrupt the lane defensively. Isn’t that what a center is supposed to do? Take notes, Wayne. This is how it’s done. If the future for Brian Williams looks anything like his performance in this game, Tennessee fans are in for a treat. He’s just a freshman and is very inexperienced . . . he’ll only get better.

I’ll take 9-1 to this point, especially considering how truly awful Wayne and Ramar have been, and how surprisingly mediocre Chris has been. If we can get any of the 3 of them playing where we expected them to be, this team will get a lot better in a hurry. As it is, I see trips to Xavier and Gonzaga being really, really tough to win. This team is certainly capable of winning those games, but it’ll have to get more out of a few guys before I’ll feel good about things.

Duke Crews out indefinitely with heart condition

The News-Sentinel posted a story this afternoon saying that the sports medicine team at UT identified a heart issue with Duke Crews. All student-athletes have echocardiograms done and in Duke’s case they found a problem. The story is here.

We will all be thinking about Duke and hoping that he’ll be fine. Basketball is certainly secondary when someone tells you that your ticker is having trouble. Rest easy and get well, Duke.

On the court, expect to see more of this:

 

BruceBall vs. Western Kentucky Preview

With final exams wrapping up yesterday and the semester officially over, Tennessee heads back on the road to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at the Sommet Center in Nashville. The game is the second in a doubleheader, with Memphis facing MTSU in the night’s opening game.

Tennessee under Bruce Pearl has fared well in the Sommet Center (formerly Gaylord Entertainment Center), going 4-1 in the past two years with wins over Oklahoma State, UNC-Wilmington, Fordham, and Murray State, and the only loss coming to South Carolina in the 2006 SEC Tournament. The Vols beat the Hilltoppers 93-79 at Thompson-Boling Arena a year ago in the teams’ only meeting.

Western Kentucky is a solid team from the Sun Belt Conference, and considered by many to be a threatening mid-major team. The ‘Toppers have already beaten BCS-league teams Michigan and Nebraska, and took Gonzaga to the wire, only losing by three in the Great Alaska Shootout. They feature an experienced backcourt (three senior guards) with two players averaging double figures in points (Courtney Lee with 21.3, Tyrone Brazelton with 12.1). Their frontcourt consists of a four-man rotation of Jeremy Evans (6′9″ So.), D.J. Magley (6′9″ Fr.), Boris Siakam (6′7″ Sr.) and Mike Walker (6′7″ Sr.). WKU also rotates 6 guards, and all 10 men in their regular rotation average at least 14 minutes.

The Hilltoppers play at an average tempo (#131, adjusted) and shoot an average number of threes (#189), so they won’t prefer the run-and-gun pace that Tennessee likes to set. They do a lot of things well offensively: shoot (eFG is #66, 75% on FTs), rebound (#51), and get to the free throw line (#86). Overall, their offense is almost as efficient as Tennessee’s, ranking #48 in the nation (adjusted).

Two related areas, however, are problems for WKU: they turn the ball over (#212) and don’t get many assists on baskets (#284). It would seem that together, these stats would point to some struggles handling and passing the ball, with few baskets being set up and the ball getting away from them too often. This plays right into Tennessee’s hand. The Vols make a living disrupting defensively and forcing turnovers.

Defensively, the Hilltoppers are solid as well, ranking #80 nationally. Like Tennessee, they make their living forcing turnovers (#10) and struggle considerably in rebounding the defensive glass (#322). They also foul a lot, putting their opponent to the line frequently (#327). Tennessee has done a good job taking care of the basketball (#2 and will need to continue doing so if they want to score on WKU.

There are three keys to this game, as I see it. First, we have to contain Lee and Brazelton (a 5′11″ spark plug-type PG) and force them into bad shots and bad passes. Second, we have to rebound the defensive glass. We can’t let the Hilltoppers get second and third chance baskets– they’re too good offensively to be given extra opportunities. Third, we have to penetrate their zone defense and make good passes to the post and the wing. Ramar, Tyler, and probably J.P. Prince are going to be counted on to break down that defense and find the open man. We’ve struggled against zones before, but we know what’s coming and should be ready to attack it.

I think Tennessee will get frustrated at times offensively if it can’t generate transition buckets, and as a result I’m not sure we’ll see a super high-scoring game. But both teams are good offensively, so I could definitely be wrong. In the end I think Courtney Lee is going to get his points, but Chris Lofton is going to get more shooting over the Hilltoppers’ trapping zone defense. My prediction: Vols 81, ‘Toppers 73